Welsh Assembly elections – no change and all change

Welsh Labour holds on, Tories lose, but UKIP gains

By Dave Reid

On the surface there has not been a huge change in the political complexion of the Welsh government – Welsh Labour lost just one seat and will be able to hold on as a minority government with the opposition split between three parties. But under the surface the election showed how much things have changed in Welsh politics.

Welsh Labour held on to most of its seats but this masked a growing discontent with the Carwyn Jones government. Its share of the vote fell by nearly a fifth, from 42% in 2011 to 34% in 2016. In the absence of a mass socialist opposition it was UKIP, hiding its right wing ideas, and to a lesser extent Plaid who benefited from this disillusionment.

One obvious change is the election for the first time of seven UKIP assembly members. All were elected in the proportional representation ballots of the election in the party lists. UKIP mounted an expensive corporate-funded campaign with lots of glossy leaflets and billboards and hardly mentioned immigration (apart from one xenophobic outburst by a candidate). Instead its slogans were Save Our Steel, Save Our NHS, Bring back A&E etc. appealing to disillusioned traditional Labour voters.

Its biggest votes came in the ex-mining communities in the South Wales valleys where Labour used to get 70% of the vote. Disillusionment with Labour has been exploited by UKIP and it came second in four constituencies behind Labour. However most voters were unaware that heading the UKIP lists in Wales were Thatcherite ex-Tory MPs Mark Reckless and the corrupt Neil Hamilton. Thatcher’s policies devastated the valleys that Reckless now (mis)represents. Where Plaid Cymru positioned itself as a viable left alternative to Labour in RCT, Caerphilly and Blaenau Gwent then UKIP was pushed into third place.

A big factor hanging over the elections was the huge threat to the Welsh steel industry and the threat to 40,000 jobs in South Wales with the sale by Tata of its UK steel plants. Labour at least appeared to be doing something compared to the obvious indifference of the Tory government in Westminster, which helped Labour’s election result.

Welsh Labour held on to all but one seat in the elections leaving them two seats short of an overall majority in the Assembly but it lost 8% of its vote from 2011, mainly to UKIP. A Corbyn-type campaign opposing the Tory cuts could have enthused working class people to support Labour, but Carwyn Jones has made clear his opposition to the leadership of Jeremy Corbyn, so it is business as usual in Wales.

The Tories were hoping to make big gains in the Assembly but instead lost three seats as opposition to the Cameron government was reflected in a fall in its vote.

Plaid gained the Rhondda, a significant victory by leader Leanne Wood, in what has been Labour’s strongest seat, to become the main opposition party with 12 seats, and increased its vote. And the Liberals were nearly wiped out, hanging on to just one seat.

The Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition stood on the three regional lists for South Wales and gained 2,040 votes, despite no media coverage. Its vote was undoubtedly hit by a layer of Labour supporters who supported TUSC’s message but were concerned that a drop in Labour’s vote would be used to attack Corbyn. But TUSC candidates won all the debates that they participated in, exposing UKIP and putting a clear anti-austerity message, winning the most applause in the hustings, being closer to the position of Corbyn supporters than the candidates they had come to support.