Socialist Party Wales Socialism In Wales
By Dave Reid
The dissatisfaction with the British capitalist establishment, first manifested in the Scottish Indyref in 2014 and in the Brexit vote in 2016, was further developed in the Euro elections. The two main parties that between them got 80% of the vote in Wales in 2017 got just 22% on Thursday, representing the rejection of Westminster politicians by voters.
The Tories suffered their worst results since 1832 in the European elections and Labour the worst since 1918. The capitalist media has focused on the poor result for Labour but it was the Tories, the government party, that was virtually obliterated gaining just 9% of the vote in the UK. In the Prime Minister’s own constituency the Tories came third.
Nevertheless the election result shows the dissatisfaction with Labour’s confused position with spokespeople pulling in several directions at once. Both Labour Remain and Leave voters voted for other parties to register their position in what to them became another referendum on Brexit, which delivered a much more unclear result than in 2016.
The Euro election results are unlikely to be repeated in a general election, but for Jeremy Corbyn the election serves as a warning that a passive wait-and-see approach to Brexit and allowing the Blairites to undermine his radical message generally could put a general election victory in jeopardy. He should go on the offensive against the Tories, and the Blairites in the PLP, and campaign for a socialist Brexit linked to radical socialist policies.
In Wales the main victors were the Brexit Party and Plaid Cymru. Leave voters from both Labour and Conservative deserted to the BP, who won 32.5% of the vote, about the same as in England. And Remain voters went to Plaid Cymru (20%) and the Lib Democrats (15%). It looks like most Labour Remain ‘deserters’ voted for Plaid and Tory ‘Remainers’ for the Liberal Dems. Welsh Labour’s 15% represents the worst result in Wales since 1910.
The vote for the Brexit Party in mainly working-class areas should act as a call to Corbyn supporters to break from the Blairites. Farage has seized on the failure of the Westminster politicians to deliver Brexit to launch his new party, hiding his right wing ideas to win the votes in these elections of working class people angry at the capitalist establishment. This is the same dissatisfaction revealed by the 2016 Brexit vote, with an even more angry twist.
The Guardian report of Farage’s visit to Merthyr revealed some of the potential support for a workers’ party fighting with a clear socialist message among Brexit Party voters. One Brexit Party supporters was quoted: “it has got nothing to do with leave and remain. It is social class. The elitists. The us and the them.” Another: “Now I seem to think that Labour is just getting in bed with the Conservatives, and they are the upper middle class. I honestly think Brexit is the new working-class party for poverty-stricken towns.” Of course, Farage remains silent about his support for the anti-working class policies of Thatcherism and even more austerity.
Plaid Cymru are claiming a big victory coming second to the Brexit Party, beating Labour for the first time ever. The party did succeed in increasing its vote by a third from 2014, but Plaid leader Adam Price’s claim that “Wales is now a Remain nation” is not so clear. Parties that were clearly standing on a Remain platform won 43% of the vote overall, with clear pro-Brexit parties winning 37%. But 43% is hardly a clear majority for Remain and the turnout in Wales was 37%, less than half that of a general election and the EU referendum itself.
And the results were very patchy. In Plaid’s rural heartlands in the North West and West Plaid topped the polls or came second. But in the South Wales valley areas, that Plaid has to gain to win the 2021 Welsh elections, there were clear majorities for pro-Brexit parties, reflecting the large votes for Leave in the 2016 elections in those areas.
The election came 12 days after the 2000-strong march for Welsh independence in Cardiff on May 11th. The AUOB Cymru march attracted much wider layers of support for independence than in the past including large contingents of working class youth.
Both the AUOB Cymru march for independence in Cardiff on May 11th and the surge of support for the Brexit Party in Wales in the European elections show the enormous discontent that exists with the political establishment and the yearning for change.
The limited devolution settlement of 1997 has delivered very little for Wales. Welsh Labour governments have privatised less than the Tories but has presided over the running down of public services after 11 years of austerity. They have abjectly failed to stand up to the Tory government in Westminster and protect working class people in Wales from the cuts.
For the Welsh Labour leaders the result is even worse in Wales than it is in England. Labour is in office in the Welsh government. The Brexit Party topped the poll in every one of the Labour-controlled council areas. As well as registering opposition to the Westminster establishment, the election result reflected also dissatisfaction with the austerity policies of the Cardiff Bay government.
The Liberal Democrats won back much of its traditional support in middle class areas by standing as the Remain party, but it is unlikely to be able to sustain that into a general election after its record of being the Tories’ austerity side-kick in the 2010-15 UK government.
And for the Tories, the main capitalist party and the official opposition in the Senedd, the results are the worst in history in Wales – less than 7% of the vote. In the Vale of Glamorgan, the seat of the Tory Secretary of State for Wales the Tories came fifth.
It is unclear how the results will transfer in a general election. If Corbyn enters the election with socialist policies to end austerity then he could win the support of the discontented who voted BP, Plaid and Lib Dem. But if he comes out with clear support for a second referendum then he could cut himself off from thousands of working class Leave voters in Labour seats. Less than half of the normal electorate voted in the Euro elections. Farage will find it harder to stand in the general election with just a Brexit policy and his right wing anti working class policies could be more exposed.
But this election should serve as Corbyn’s wake up call.
