Socialist Party Wales Socialism In Wales
By Dave Reid
Welsh politics is in a state of flux with a very uncertain situation developing. The disillusionment with the political establishment was reflected in the 53% vote to leave the EU in 2016 and the current rising support for independence. All the Westminster-based parties that have implemented austerity have lost support in Wales.
The main pro-capitalist political parties in Wales have all been in crisis and there is a simmering discontent within the working class with them. Fundamentally this discontent is a protest at a near decade of austerity that has blighted the lives of millions and wiped out one third of public services. The disgust with the austerity parties and the Brexit impasse is reflected in both a rise in support for independence for Wales and paradoxically also a rise in support in the working class for the populist Brexit party whose leadership hides many of its right-wing anti-working class policies.
Fluctuating polls
All this means that is very difficult to anticipate an election next week let alone for the Welsh Assembly in 2021. The recent YouGov poll for ITV Wales gives a very unclear picture and shows more than anything that the polls are fluctuating wildly. The poll put the Tories ahead in Wales in a general election for the first time ever and yet a few days later they lost their seat in Brecon and Radnor to the Lib Dems who are slowly recovering from their wipe-out in 2017. And while the Tories were ahead of Labour in the poll for elections to Westminster, it is Plaid who leads Labour in elections to the Senedd with the Tories in third.
This poll putting the Tories ahead of Labour (who are on just 22%) is not a reflection of support for the Tories but more an indication of the decline of support for Labour. The poll took place when Boris Johnson was basking in the publicity from his leadership victory, but still only put the Tories on 24%. They have since lost the Brecon and Radnor by election and a council by election to the Lib Dems since.
Predictably mainstream political commentators like Roger Scully have lined up to claim that this represents a rejection of Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn in Wales. It is true that Corbyn’s silence on austerity being implemented by Welsh Labour and his confused position on Brexit has undermined his position, but it is more likely that it is the unpopularity of the Welsh Labour government that is depressing Labour’s poll figures.
Tory Austerity managed by Labour
The Assembly is celebrating its 20th anniversary and Welsh Labour has been in power in Cardiff Bay since its inception. For half of that time it has presided over the most devastating cuts to public services in history, tamely implementing the cuts demanded by the Tories and Lib Dem Westminster governments. The coat of the Welsh NHS is being cut to match the Tory cloth. Local hospitals are being closed to sell off the land while more and more services are cut and jammed into giant hospitals that cannot cope with the demand. More and more people are dying waiting for an ambulance.
The debacle over the M4 relief road at Newport in which the government wasted £144 million on an enquiry and then cancelled the project has further undermined its support. Socialists support alternative means of public transport to motorway traffic but if there is not a transformation of transport configuration then something must be done to relieve the congestion and pollution on the M4 around Newport which is the main transport route into and through South Wales.
And as well as the right-wing policies being pursued by Welsh Labour in the Senedd, Labour dominates Welsh councils that have implemented Tory cuts with enthusiasm.
The ‘Left Behind’
The discontent with the main political parties and Labour in particular has been reflected in different movements within the working class especially the within the depressed area of the South Wales valleys – the areas patronisingly referred to in the metropolitan press as “Left Behind”. In the 20th century the working-class domination in mining communities led to Labour, the main party of the working class, dominate local politics. It was seen as the main vehicle to achieve reforms and defend working people, albeit quite often with a pro-capitalist right wing leadership. But Labour has not defended the working class in the 21st century.
And the valley communities have been hit hardest by austerity, with Universal Credit just the latest of attacks that have devastated living standards. Local services that the poorest depend on have been emasculated in an avalanche of cuts that have engulfed day centres, libraries, care homes, health centres, play centres, early years education, schools etc.
The Leave vote in the 2016 EU referendum, amongst the highest in the UK in these areas, was a reflection of the rejection of the political establishment and the status quo. The valleys are among the only areas in Britain to qualify for EU structural funding and the liberal elite were perplexed that the valleys voted to leave the EU. But if that funding was so beneficial why had those communities continued to decline? The Leave vote was a rejection of continuing as usual.
Rising support for independence
And the growing support for Welsh independence is also a reflection of a rejection of the Westminster elite. The Brexit gridlock in parliament has added to the general rejection of the status quo. Support for independence which dipped as low as 3% in 2014 is rising above the normal 15%. 8,000 marched for independence in Caernarfon and over 2,000 in Cardiff. There is renewed positivity for independence in working class areas in the South. The marches revealed a new layer of “Indy-Curious” amongst working class and young people who are also very open to the ideas of socialism.
There has been a rise in national consciousness that is reminiscent in scale of the rise in the late 90s. The vandalism of the memorial to Tryweryn, the village in North Wales flooded to provide water to England, has led its slogan “Cofiwch Dryweryn” to be spray painted on walls across Wales. Many of the fears that Wales is too poor to be independent have been pushed to one side as people fear that it cannot get any worse than it already is.
Even Welsh Labour leaders have speculated on the likelihood of independence. First Minister Mark Drakeford has said independence was possible and ex First Minister Carwyn Jones has speculated on the chaotic break-up of the UK.
The support for independence is partly an indication of the feeling that devolution has failed. The Welsh government has weaker powers and far less resources than the Scottish parliament. A succession of Welsh Labour governments has managed the decline of the Welsh economy and the emasculation of public services. One reflection of the discontent with the Welsh Assembly is a feeling amongst a layer of older workers that it is a waste of money. But a growing layer of young people want more autonomy and even independence to break away from austerity-ridden and corrupt Westminster.
The Indy movement is at an early stage but if Corbyn fails to win the general election and a Tory coalition were to hang on to power then the movement would gain even further momentum and support could rise rapidly to unprecedented levels across Wales.
If Corbyn wins and his government fails to carry through the reforms promised in his manifesto or continues the Tory cuts then equally there could be a rise in support. A Corbyn government would have to contend with not just the bitter opposition of the British capitalist elite but with the Blairite saboteurs in his own government who together will try to thwart reforms by a Corbyn government. Such a government would also give rise to new struggles by the working class and the trade union movement, but that would not necessarily cut across a rise in support for independence.
For a socialist Wales
Socialist Party Wales supports autonomy for Wales with a Welsh parliament that, with a socialist government, could break with Westminster austerity and pass measures to abolish Universal Credit in Wales, abolish zero hour contracts, introduce a £12 minimum wage, nationalise firms like Ford that threaten closures, and nationalise the commanding heights of the economy. It could implement a socialist green programme to transition from polluting industries without loss of jobs and invest in providing jobs in green industries like tidal power. Such a government would need to mobilise the working class in Wales to implement those policies in the teeth of opposition from British and international capital, but also inspire similar movements in Scotland and Ireland and especially England, if it were to succeed in transforming society.
This is in contrast to Plaid Cymru who call for an independent capitalist Wales. Adam Price has called for more tax cuts for the rich corporations in Wales to attract investment and created the illusion that Wales could emulate Ireland as a tax-free playground for the global corporations. Plaid is riding high in the polls as support for independence or autonomy rises and the YouGov poll had the party leading Welsh Labour in polls for the Welsh Assembly. But Plaid’s deal in Brecon and Radnor to help the Lib Dems, partners in austerity crime with the Tories, shows that Plaid is not an anti-austerity party. Plaid councils have been just as bad as Labour councils in carrying out cuts.
A general election could be forced on Boris Johnson at any time. If Jeremy Corbyn was to put forward a manifesto with socialist policies then it could cut through the scepticism with Labour in Wales and win a big majority of Welsh seats. Even a manifesto with radical policies similar to the 2017 manifesto could win a majority. But the more the Welsh Labour government carries through Tory cuts the more it will undercut Labour’s support and the support for Plaid, the Brexit Party and even the Lib Dems could rise.
Socialist Party Wales calls for:
- Reverse all the cuts—for the Welsh government and Welsh councils to set legal no-cuts budgets, pool reserves and build a mass campaign to force the UK government to return the funds robbed from Welsh services
- Invest in the NHS and expand local hospitals. Train hundreds of new doctors, nurses and other health professionals for the Welsh NHS.
- Ban zero hour contracts
- Raise the minimum wage to £12 an hour
- Renationalise rail and the utilities
- Nationalise any plants faced with closure
- Nationalise the commanding heights of the economy.
- For a socialist Wales as part of a voluntary socialist confederation of Wales, England, Scotland and Ireland
